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這是我高中好友，醜人結社社長糖教授之大作（不確定他要不要洩漏真名，因為很可能會被學校說不趕快做研究A錢搞什麼Fantasy...）！由於他接觸NFL/American Football是從英文開始，要他寫中文可能會詞不達意（要我翻譯不如直接捏LP）。如果你知道有誰在看NFL，歡迎轉寄。我想這篇文章應該可以是台灣史上絕無僅有的NFL FB analysis！

Well done, Dr. Sugar!!

Two Strategies for Fantasy Football Draft

Having played ESPN Head-to-Head Fantasy Football (FF) for three years, I came up two strategies for my draft this season and would like to share with the interested readers (maybe none). My first strategy is the order of my early draft picks: I plan to use the first pick for the best available QB, then RB, TE, and WR. Yeah, I think QB and TE are crucial because they occupy the two spots in the lineup that are not replaceable by other position players.

RB is in the middle of their order because, comparing to WR, a good RB make consistent contributions. Indeed, the first thing you want to question this argument is that there are many other positions with this no-substitute constraint, including a D and K, and a RB and two WRs. This brings my other point: usually there are not many decent replacements for QB and TE on the FA comparing to other positions. For example, there are almost always unexpected awesome pickups of RB/WR in the FA every week. I can give you tons of examples by scanning my memory quickly, such as Victor Cruz of NY Giants and LeGarrette Blount of TB Buccaneers last year, or Peyton Hills in the other year. Not to mention there are two holes of WR/RB that can be filled with either position players, which provide a decent flexibility for the manager. Therefore, I decide not to use my first draft pick on WR and RB.

For QB there is much different story. First, consider yourself picking up a QB in an early round, say, Drew Brees. What’s his difference between a QB you pick up in a later round, say, Eli Mannning, or FA, say, Ryan Fitzpatrick? I would venture a guess that there are at least 10 points and above per week on average. There are simply not many comparable replacements in later rounds or FA for those stardom QBs. Of course, there are always exceptions. Last year I got lucky from picking up Cam Newton in the FA, who became my regular starter over Matt Schuab of the Texans. But I suspect it’s not typical. Think about Tim Tebow, or guess about Andrew Luck and Griffin the III this year.

Similar analysis applies to TE. Usually there are not many good TEs available in the FA. Maybe it’s the position’s problem: there are just few good TEs out there. That’s why I am willing to pick a TE in early rounds. Last year I was caught by this not-so-good-TEavailable situation, which including a rotation between Brent Celek and someone else, whereas Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots and Jimmy Graham were doing awesome. Again, there are always exceptions. Preseason top 1 TE Antonio Gates were not doing well last season. Nevertheless, its a risk for every player you draft. At last, considered K and D. Maybe no one wants to invest early picks on K. D is slightly more important because some teams perform more stable defense than other teams, such as the Steelers. However, I don’t think I will use my early picks for D because it can be a streaming position given the current week’s teams and opponents’ latest situation. I will also bring up this issue again on which is the best round to pick up the best available D’s later, along with my planned draft order in terms of position.

My second strategy is to pick WRs and RBs from the team with a mediocre QB- I mean those QBs whose names are not Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers...to name a few. The problem of these QBs is that they are so good at their position such that they can just throw to anybody who is on the best position of receiving. Quoted from TMR, the sky is their limit. In that case the WRs in their teams will not get decent amount of receiving opportunity regularly. For example, Dree Brees literally threw to different WRs in different games. Jimmy Graham is the player with the most consistent receiving opportunity in his team, but he’s a TE. On the contrary, for those not-so-awesome QBs, usually they throw regularly to his star WR with sufficient amount. For example, Calvin Johnson had a lot of receiving opportunity from Matthew Staford. Similar reasoning applies to a RB in the team with star QB- they might not even get enough chance to run. For example, last year I
owned the best RB of the Patriots: the Law Firm. Guess what? He barely ran. The other year I owned Payton Hill of the Browns. Given the QB that time, Brady Quinn, whom seems like a prince back to his Notre Dame time with super hot gf, Hill accumulated a lot of points for me.

An Example on How to Apply These Two Strategies

As an example on how to apply these two strategies, here is my plan for the draft on Wednesday night ET. Following my strategies, the order is going to be
1. QB 2. RB 3. TE 4. WR 5. WR 6. RB 7.WR 8. QB 9. D 10. TE After 10th round simply pick whatever the best WR/RB available, subject to my strategies. Pick up a kicker in the 17 round or whenever the other starting doing it. Two consecutive WRs pickups in the 4th and 5th rounds make up the strength of my WR lineup. Another RB and WR fill up the position holes, and the QB and TE in the last three rounds are for backups. That’s why I put D ahead of the backup TE because he is a backup anyway.

I move QB ahead of D because I’d like to get Griffin the III if possible.

We are a league consists of 12 teams. My draft order is 7 (yeah! lucky 7!) Given last year’s draft results and this year’s preseason rankings, here are my prediction list of the players I think I have greater chance to get. I am using two scenarios for this: first, the “last year scenario:” for example, if there were 14 WRs picked last year in the first three rounds and I am going to pick another WR in the fourth round, I’ll look at the WRs ranked from 13 to 16 this year. If there’s someone I prefer behind 16 I’ll take a note at them either. If there’s someone before 13 that has not been picked up yet I’ll just pick him up (again, subject to my strategies).

Second, the “ranking” scenario: I’ll assume everyone in my league follows whatever the order the preseason ranking suggests. I’ll consider whatever the situation in
that scenario to include the players may be available to me.

First round: If I get lucky I will pick Aaron Rodgers. However, given my draft order I think Drew Brees is the most likely choice. The backup option is Tom Brady. TMR suggested Brady on top of Brees, so I’ll have to think about it again. Worst scenario: I lost the chance to pick up the above three. In such case I am having the choice of the fourth best RB or the best WR. Pick Calvin Johnson now and Stafford or Newton in the second round. Pick the best RB in the third round and TE in the fourth round. WR in the fifth round.

Second round: Most of my league members picked RB in the first round and now 11 RBs were gone. According to the rankings, I am looking at the RBs ranked from 10 to 14. Adrian Peterson is the best choice, but I need to do some survey on him and the rest players. The ranking scenario suggests the RB from 7, which is Forte of Bears (TMR recommended). I’ll have to survey the RBs ranked from 7 to 14 then.

Third round: Last year my league member did not pick up any TE until the fourth round, so I am hoping to obtain either Gronkowski or Graham if possible. Have to read their comparison though. Worst scenario: Gates is the backup option but he is ranked far later in the fifth round as the ranking suggests. In this case, switch to the best WR now available in this round and pick Gates in the fourth round. The WRs I am looking at in this scenario are the one around 10, so I may want to pick Cruz of Giants. Compare the rest choices from 9 to 14 before the draft.

Fourth and fifth round: Judging from the last year’s results, I m looking at WRs that ranked 17th. This gives me a great opportunity to reunite with my last season favorite: Steve Smith of the Panthers. He’s the favorite WR of Newton, and he satisfies my criteria for WR. He’s gonna be the one. The rest WRs are not looking good, bc they are from Cowboys, Saints, and Patriots. I might want to go with Bryant and Austin of Cowboys. Have to check that. Along with the worst scenario from round 3, I have to make some comparisons among the WRs ranked from 9 to 23.

Sixth round: Now I am looking at RBs ranked after 27th. Along with the ranking scenario, I will have to do some comparison between RBs ranked from 26 to 30.

Seventh round: Now I am looking at the 31th ranked WR. Compare 27-35 WR.

Eighth round: QB 13-15 should be available here. I will give a shot on Robert Griffin the III because the Redskin spent so much on him (including their future draft picks). The backups are Schaub and Cutler.

Ninth round: whatever the best defense available.

Tenth round: whatever the best TE available. (try Fred Davis)

Alrighty. If you are reading this post to the end, I will share my championship money with you :) Good luck to my 2012 Football Season!

Go Spartans!